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Interactive demo · etrucktco AI This is a live example of what etrucktco generates for any European transport operator. Adjust the parameters below and watch the entire business case recalculate. In production, our AI engine pulls the inputs automatically from your ERP (Odoo, SAP), the grid operator's capacity database (Fluvius, Stedin, Elia), logistics property data (Montea, WDP, Prologis depot availability), and the EU subsidy registers. A CFO who spent 6-18 months on this analysis can now run dozens of scenarios in minutes.
Fleet Electrification Business Case
Generic transport operator · diesel → electric truck transition
Generated by etrucktco AI
Sample output · May 2026
Adjust parameters → tables recalculate live
try moving the sliders
€1.50
after €0.1913/L professional refund (BE 2026) net: €1.31/L
€0.22
30%

How to read this · CAPEX breakdown

The first table compares total cost of ownership between a diesel and electric fleet over your chosen contract period. CAPEX is split between trucks (the vehicles themselves) and charging infrastructure (chargers + grid connection + battery buffer if needed). For electric, infra cost is shown after the selected EU subsidy. Notice: electric CAPEX is significantly higher upfront, but OPEX savings over 7-10 years more than compensate.

Fleet · 80 trucks · 7 years (€ million) gross CAPEX · subsidies in OPEX
ABCDE
DieselElectricΔ €Δ %
1 CAPEX 9.60 20.44 +10.84 +113%
1a └ Trucks 9.60 15.84 +6.24 +65%
1b └ Chargers (net of subsidy) 4.60 +4.60
2 OPEX (lifetime) 31.87 15.16 −16.71 −52%
2a └ Energy 19.80 11.90 −7.90 −40%
2b └ Other (maintenance, tolls, insurance) 12.07 3.26 −8.81 −73%
3 TCO total 41.47 35.60 −5.87 −14%
4 ROI total CAPEX =5.87 / 20.44 29%
5 ROI delta CAPEX =5.87 / 10.84 54%

How to read this · per truck

Same numbers, divided by fleet size — useful for CFOs benchmarking against current per-vehicle costs. TCO delta per truck is the single most important figure for procurement decisions. ROI total measures return on the full CAPEX outlay (as if you were comparing this investment to bonds). ROI delta measures return on the incremental investment over diesel — typically much higher.

Per truck (€k, 7 years)
ABCDE
DieselElectricΔ €Δ %
1 CAPEX 120 255 +135 +113%
1a └ Trucks 120 198 +78 +65%
1b └ Chargers 57 +57
2 OPEX (lifetime) 398 190 −209 −52%
3 TCO total 518 445 −73 −14%
4 ROI total CAPEX =73 / 255 29%
5 ROI delta CAPEX =73 / 135 54%

How to read this · cashflow over time

The negative CAPEX hits in year 0. From year 1, operational savings start flowing in. EU subsidies typically arrive in years 2-4 as tax-deductible OPEX items, not as upfront CAPEX reduction (accounting reality). The infrastructure residual value is captured in the final year. Look for the ✓ — that is when cumulative cashflow turns positive (payback achieved). Note: this is nominal cashflow. Apply your own discount rate for NPV.

Annual cashflow vs diesel (€ million) payback in year 5 · realistic curves
ABCDEFGH
Y 0Y 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7
1 Δ CAPEX −10.84
2 Δ OPEX +1.80 +1.62 +1.77 +1.93 +2.50 +2.55 +2.44
3 Subsidy +0.68 +0.68 +0.67
4 Residual value +0.32
5 Net Δ per year −10.84 +1.80 +2.30 +2.45 +2.60 +2.50 +2.55 +2.76
6 Cumulative −10.84 −9.04 −6.74 −4.29 −1.69 +0.81 ✓ +3.36 +6.12

How to read this · investment benchmark

The fleet investment is compared against alternative uses of the same capital over the same period. Risk-adjusted, the electric fleet typically outperforms savings accounts and government bonds, while being more conservative than public equities. It also generates strategic value (ESG reporting, customer retention via zero-emission contracts, fuel independence) not captured in this table.

Alternative uses of €20.44M capital over 7 years annualized return · risk · liquidity
ABCDE
InvestmentYield/yrRiskEnd year 7
Full calculation · transparent · auditable

Every number, every formula, every substitution.

Below is the complete mathematical derivation behind the tables above. Every value substitutes the parameters you selected. Bank analysts and CFOs can audit each step. All formulas are live — they recalculate when you change any parameter.

§1

Input parameters

N= number of trucks80
y= contract length (years)7
Pe= electric truck price (€k)198
Pd= diesel pump price (€/L)1.50
Rd= professional diesel refund (€/L, BE 2026)0.1913
Pk= depot power price (€/kWh)0.22
s= subsidy on infra (%)30
k= annual km per truck100,000
ft= country toll factor1.00
fd= country diesel tax factor1.00
§2

Fixed engineering assumptions

Ld= diesel consumption30 L / 100 km
Le= electric consumption1.1 kWh / km
P0= diesel truck price€120k
Cg= charger CAPEX per truck (gross)€57k
Od= diesel "other" OPEX per truck (7-year base)€151k
Oe= electric "other" OPEX per truck (7-year base)€41k
§3

Diesel fleet TCO

CAPEX
CAPEXd = P0 × N
= 0.120 × 80
= €9.60 M
Net diesel price
Pd,net = max(0, Pd − Rd)
= max(0, 1.50 − 0.1913)
= €1.31 / L
Energy OPEX (lifetime)
Ed = (k × Ld / 100) × Pd,net × fd × y × N
= (100,000 × 30 / 100) × 1.31 × 1.00 × 7 × 80 / 1,000,000
= €22.00 M
Other OPEX (maintenance, tolls, insurance, AdBlue − residual)
Xd = Od × (y / 7) × ft × N
= 0.151 × (7 / 7) × 1.00 × 80
= €12.08 M
Total OPEX
OPEXd = Ed + Xd
= 22.00 + 12.08
= €34.08 M
Total TCO diesel
TCOd = CAPEXd + OPEXd
= 9.60 + 34.08
= €43.68 M
§4

Electric fleet TCO

Trucks CAPEX
CAPEXe,t = (Pe / 1000) × N
= (198 / 1000) × 80
= €15.84 M
Chargers CAPEX (gross)
CAPEXe,c,gross = Cg × N
= 0.057 × 80
= €4.56 M
Chargers CAPEX (net of subsidy)
CAPEXe,c = CAPEXe,c,gross × (1 − s/100)
= 4.56 × (1 − 30/100) = 4.56 × 0.70
= €3.19 M
Total CAPEX electric
CAPEXe = CAPEXe,t + CAPEXe,c
= 15.84 + 3.19
= €19.03 M
Energy OPEX (lifetime)
Ee = (k × Le) × Pk × y × N
= (100,000 × 1.1) × 0.22 × 7 × 80 / 1,000,000
= €13.55 M
Other OPEX (lower maintenance, toll-free, no AdBlue, lower insurance)
Xe = Oe × (y / 7) × N
= 0.041 × (7 / 7) × 80
= €3.28 M
Total OPEX
OPEXe = Ee + Xe
= 13.55 + 3.28
= €16.83 M
Total TCO electric
TCOe = CAPEXe + OPEXe
= 19.03 + 16.83
= €35.86 M
§5

TCO savings & ROI

CAPEX delta (extra investment vs diesel)
ΔCAPEX = CAPEXe − CAPEXd
= 19.03 − 9.60
= €9.43 M
OPEX savings over lifetime
ΔOPEX = OPEXd − OPEXe
= 34.08 − 16.83
= €17.25 M
Net TCO savings (the headline number)
S = TCOd − TCOe = ΔOPEX − ΔCAPEX
= 43.68 − 35.86 = 17.25 − 9.43
= €7.82 M
ROI on total CAPEX (lifetime)
ROItot = S / CAPEXe
= 7.82 / 19.03
= 41%
ROI on incremental investment (vs sunk diesel cost)
ROIΔ = S / ΔCAPEX
= 7.82 / 9.43
= 83%
Annualized yield on total CAPEX (linear, not compound)
rtot = ROItot / y
= 41% / 7
= 5.9% / yr
Average annual OPEX saving
ΔOPEX/yr = ΔOPEX / y
= 17.25 / 7
= €2.46 M / yr
Payback period (linear approximation)
Tp = ΔCAPEX / ΔOPEX/yr
= 9.43 / 2.46
= 3.83 years
§6

Per truck

TCO savings per truck
S/truck = S × 1000 / N
= 7.82 × 1000 / 80
= €97.8k / truck
Incremental CAPEX per truck
ΔCAPEX/truck = ΔCAPEX × 1000 / N
= 9.43 × 1000 / 80
= €117.9k / truck
§7

Cashflow distribution over years

The annual cashflow table uses a realistic growing OPEX-saving curve, not a flat line. Maintenance gap widens over time (diesel grows €4.8k → €15.5k/yr, electric stays €2.2k → €6.8k/yr), so savings grow proportionally.

Year-t OPEX saving (growing linear factor)
ΔOPEXt = (ΔOPEX / y) × [0.75 + 0.40 × (t−1)/(y−1)]
→ factor ranges from 0.75 (year 1) to 1.15 (year y), normalized so sum equals ΔOPEX
EU subsidy distribution (years 2-4)
Subsidytotal = CAPEXe,c,gross × s/100
= 4.56 × 30/100
= €1.37 M
Subsidy split (years 2, 3, 4)
Y2: 34% · Y3: 33% · Y4: 33%
Matches AFIF + VLAIO disbursement timing (post-installation milestones)
Cumulative cashflow
Cumt = Cumt-1 + ΔOPEXt + Subsidyt + Residualt
Cum0 = −ΔCAPEX. Payback ✓ marked at first positive year.
§8

Investment benchmark (compound interest)

Each passive investment alternative is compounded annually on the same capital (CAPEXe) over the contract length. The fleet line uses actual TCO savings, not compound — it represents real cashflow benefit, not return on principal.

Passive investment value at year y
Vi = CAPEXe × [(1 + ri/100)y − 1]
where ri = yield% per investment (2.3% cash, 3.2% bond, 5.0% BBB, 5.5% Euro Stoxx, 7.5% MSCI World, 10% S&P 500)
Fleet value at year y
Vfleet = S
= 7.82
= €7.82 M
Implied annualized fleet yield (used for sort ranking)
rfleet = ROItot / y
= 41% / 7
= 5.9% / yr

Mathematical caveats & honest limitations

  • Linear payback: we use a simple linear approximation ΔCAPEX / avg yearly saving. Real payback uses the cumulative cashflow row in the cashflow table (which respects the growing-savings curve and subsidy timing). The two differ by ±0.5 year typically.
  • No NPV / discounting: all values are nominal. To convert to NPV, apply discount rate d per year: NPV = Σ CFt / (1+d)t. At d=5%, lifetime savings drop ~15%. At d=8%, ~22%.
  • Inflation: not modeled. Diesel and electricity prices are held constant over the contract. In practice diesel typically rises faster than electricity (especially with EU ETS-2 from 2027), so this understates the electric advantage.
  • Battery degradation: we assume linear capacity over the contract. Real LFP cells lose 10-15% over 7 years; affects residual value but not OPEX.
  • Public charging: excluded. If >10% of mileage requires Milence-style charging (€0.46/kWh), the case weakens by €0.5-1.5M per fleet per year.
  • Annualized fleet yield: simple linear (ROI / years), not compound IRR. Compound IRR would be slightly higher because savings come progressively, not lump-sum.
  • Country factor: applies only to "other" OPEX (tolls) and diesel taxation. Energy prices, subsidy rates, and labor differ further across BE/NL/DE/FR but are not modeled here.